The shaked dwarf

Silvio Berlusconi has dominated Italian political life since he was first elected prime minister in 1994, just as his television empire has helped shape the country's imagination over a generation. He is now in his third term, although the terms were not consecutive, but barely holding on to office.
When he took power again in 2008, he seemed to be almost permanently intertwined with the Italian state. But starting with revelations in 2009 of personal indiscretions that were remarkably indiscreet even by Mr. Berlusconi's standards, his standing began to diminish. In July 2010 he split with a key partner in his center-right coalition, creating a slow-moving political crisis that led to a vote of confidence Mr. Berlusconi barely survived in December 2010.
Although his mandate is set to end in 2013, the razor-thin majority shown in the vote meant that Mr. Berlusconi no longer has the margin to govern, and analysts predicted that he might resign and call early elections anyway. Those could come at a high cost at a time when international markets are intensely focused on Italy’s high debt and low growth.
Critics accused Mr. Berlusconi of squandering his majority and focusing more on his personal life — not only the now-infamous wild parties, but also his many legal sagas — than on the country’s problems. Economists say Italy needs significant structural reform and cost cutting in order to stimulate growth and reduce its debt, which at 118 percent of gross domestic product is the second-highest in the 16-member Euro zone after Greece.
Mr. Berlussoni's troubles began a year into his latest tenure, as his private life began to dominate the national conversation, especially stories involving young women, parties and the official residence. Then Mr. Berlusconi's wife, Veronica Lario, took to the front pages to announce that she wanted a divorce and accused him of dallying with young women.
Caustic characterizations of Mr. Berlusconi were revealed in a cache of leaked diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks and released to various news organizations in November 2010, causing a firestorm in Italy. In one instance, Elizabeth Dibble, the deputy chief of mission at the United States Embassy in Rome, who was preparing President Obama for a meeting with Mr. Berlusconi in June 2009, warned that some in the American government regarded the Italian leader as “feckless, vain and ineffective as a modern European leader.”
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Marital Drama Unfolds in the Press
When Mr. Berlusconi's wife announced in May 2009 that she wanted a divorce and accused him of cavorting with young women, it seemed like yet another storm that Italy's most powerful man would easily weather.
Then things turned surreal. First came a rare and inescapable torrent of speculation in the media and at dinner tables about the nature and origins of his relationship with Noemi Letizia, a pretty blond aspiring model whose 18th birthday party he attended in Naples in April. (She said she calls him Daddy.) This was the party that caused Mr. Berlusconi's wife to declare their marriage, one year older than Ms. Letizia, over.
The intense scrutiny was seen as costing Mr. Berlusconi's coalition several percentage points in June elections for the European Parliament, which it won anyway.
A new scandal erupted the same month as three women said that they were paid to attend parties at Mr. Berlusconi's official Rome residence and that they were given jewelry. The depiction of the prime minister's residence as a kind of Playboy Mansion with spotty security shifted the public mood in Italy.
One of the women who said they were paid to attend, Patrizia D'Addario, told the newspaper Corriere della Sera that she had visited the residence several times, and that Mr. Berlusconi asked her to spend the night once. She said she tape-recorded her visits and also took some photographs. The link between Mr. Berlusconi and Ms. D'Addario emerged from a corruption investigation into a businessman who was said to have introduced them.
Facing growing criticism about his private life, Mr. Berlusconi went on the defensive in an exclusive interview in Chi magazine, which he owns and which is Italy's equivalent of People. He said he did not recall Ms. D'Addario.
Mr. Berlusconi said that he thought the left was behind the investigation of the businessman and that it was trying to tarnish his image before Italy hosted President Obama and other world leaders at the Group of 8 summit meeting from July 8 to 10. The meeting was held in L'Aquila, the city devastated by an April 6 earthquake that killed nearly 300 people and left 65,000 homeless.
In August, Dino Boffo, editor of the staid newspaper of the Italian Bishops' Conference, Avvenire, wrote: "People have understood the unease, the mortification, the suffering that this arrogant neglect of sobriety has caused the Catholic Church." The next month, Mr. Boffo was out of a job.
Il Giornale, the newspaper owned by Mr. Berlusconi's brother, responded by calling Mr. Boffo "a homosexual known to the Italian secret services" and the culprit in a sexual harassment suit. Il Giornale's attack expanded further with another editorial aimed at the Catholic Church itself.
In December 2009, as if to cap off an eventful year, Massimo Tartaglia, a man with a history of mental illness, struck the prime minister in the face with a statuette after a rally, fracturing his nose and breaking two teeth. Mr. Tartaglia was placed under psychiatric care and banned him from attending public rallies.
Legal Troubles
Mr. Berlusconi's popularity, as reflected in polls, has dropped sharply, and he appears deeply worried about further damage, especially from moderate Catholic voters. He has announced million-dollar defamation lawsuits against several publications that have been critical of him, part of what his critics and allies alike worry is a dangerous trend toward treating any criticism as disloyal and possibly illegal.
In addition to waning popularity, Mr. Berlusconi faces potential legal trouble, as well. In October, Italy's highest court overturned a law that has protected the country's highest officials, granting them immunity from prosecution while in office. But in April 2010, President Giorgio Napolitano signed a new law giving the prime minister and his ministers immunity from trial for 18 months because their duties constitute a "legitimate impediment" to attending hearings.
Milan prosecutors have asked for Mr. Berlusconi to stand trial for tax fraud and embezzlement in television-rights deals, but the case is likely to be suspended under the new law.
Another case against Mr. Berlusconi, in which he is accused of bribing a British lawyer, David Mills, to give false testimony, suffered a setback when the case against Mr. Mills expired under the statute of limitations, weakening the case against Mr. Berlusconi.
Political Crisis
The current political crisis is so complex as to confound even veteran political analysts, to say nothing of average Italians. But what is clear is that Mr. Berlusconi is struggling mightily to hold his coalition together. The restive co-founder of his center-right People of Liberties party, Gianfranco Fini, a former neo-fascist who is finding more support these days in the center, left the party in late July 2010, arguing that Mr. Berlusconi was in danger of becoming a dictator.
The split also strengthened the Northern League’s point man in the government, Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti, who is seen as a contender to one day succeed Mr. Berlusconi.
As the crisis expands, no one is forgetting that the Northern League, though a partner in every Berlusconi government, has not always been loyal. In 1994, Mr. Berlusconi’s first government collapsed after the party pulled out, and without its backing he lost the 1996 elections. With its support, he won again in 2001 and 2008.
This time around, Northern League leaders say they will back Mr. Berlusconi — but they want elections next spring, two years before the government’s mandate is set to end. In exchange for its support, the party wants Mr. Berlusconi to pass its platform of “fiscal federalism,” allowing more tax revenue to stay local in the prosperous North.
Hanging in the balance is the Italian South, which has traditionally backed Mr. Berlusconi, but which the Northern League mercilessly criticizes for its corruption and historic misuse of state resources. Some political observers say fiscal federalism will further divide the country between the prosperous North and poorer South.
Calling for a Vote of Confidence
Mr. Berlusconi narrowly survived two confidence votes on Dec. 14, 2010, avoiding the collapse of his government but prolonging Italy’s political agony. The votes, in the Senate and lower house, came in a highly charged atmosphere. Some protestors clashed violently with the police, who fired tear gas, as tens of thousands of people marched through Rome calling on Mr. Berlusconi to step down.
In spite of the victory, Italy was plunged into political uncertainty. Mr. Berlusconi, with his razor-thin majority, no longer has the margin to govern, and analysts predicted that he might resign in the coming weeks and call early elections anyway.
Mr. Berlusconi’s chief problems are within his own coalition. Not even Mr. Berlusconi was strong — or focused enough — to hold together a fragile and ideologically incoherent center-right coalition. In November 2010, Mr. Belusconi's former ally, Mr. Fini withdrew four cabinet members, a move that formalized the political crisis and precipitated the confidence vote.
Mr. Fini’s grouping had enough power to help bring down Mr. Berlusconi. But in spite of his statesmanlike demeanor and growing consensus, Mr. Fini still does not have enough power to succeed Mr. Berlusconi.