This is Massimo D'Alema

Therefore he should leave the democratic party. See point nr 7

ID:	160750
Date:	2008-07-03 16:54:00
Origin:	08ROME840
Source:	Embassy Rome
Classification:	SECRET//NOFORN
Dunno:
Destination:	VZCZCXRO9503 PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV DE RUEHRO #0840/01 1851654 ZNY SSSSS ZZH P 031654Z JUL 08 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0560 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE 3107 RUEHMIL/AMCONSUL MILAN 9450 RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES 3254 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000840  SIPDIS  NOFORN  E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2033  TAGS: PGOV, IT  SUBJECT: ITALY: BERLUSCONI HITS STRONG HEADWINDS  ROME 00000840 001.2 OF 002  Classified By: Ambassador Ronald P. Spogli for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).  SUMMARY  -------  1. (C/NF) After a very strong first month in office, PM  Berlusconi's political honeymoon has been upset by  prosecutors accelerating proceedings in criminal cases  pending against him. These proceedings, leaked wiretaps, as  well as the probability of further leaks have Berlusconi  insiders concerned. The political furor over legislative  proposals to block these investigations has distracted the  public and Italy's politicians from progress on needed  reforms but has not reduced Berlusconi's popularity,  according to recent opinion polls. The strong prospect that  legislation will be approved granting Berlusconi criminal  immunity by the end of July may reduce his legal risks, but  his political standing and ability to accomplish his national  agenda could suffer setbacks. END SUMMARY.  A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE LEGISLATIVE AGENDA  -------------------------------------------  2. (C/NF) Soon after his May 8 swearing in, PM Berlusconi  started delivering on campaign promises to reduce taxes and  increase public security, propelling his approval ratings  above sixty percent and earning him the grudging support of  many opposition voters and even parts of a normally hostile  press (REF A). On June 17, Berlusconi attached an amendment  to a security decree pending in the Senate that would freeze  trials on "lesser crimes" committed before June 30, 2002 (REF  B), a provision that would reportedly suspend at least one  case against Berlusconi. The press aggressively attacked  Berlusconi for attending to his personal affairs; Democratic  Party (PD) leader Walter Veltroni announced the end of  dialogue with Berlusconi; and several Forza Italia (FI)  members of parliament told Poloff they were confused by  Berlusconi's timing when there was much on the political  agenda yet to be accomplished. Commentators were ready to  declare Berlusconi's honeymoon over.  3. (C/NF) The Senate ultimately approved the amendment  freezing certain criminal cases as well as the underlying  decree, passing it the Chamber of Deputies for consideration.  The self-governing Superior Council of the Magistracy (CSM)  objected, suggesting the provision was unconstitutional.  President Napolitano gave the CSM an unusual rebuke by  telling them they were speaking out of turn and that  pronouncing on constitutionality was the purview of the  Constitutional Court. Berlusconi has since introduced a  modified version of a 2003 law, known as the "Lodo Schifani,"  that would give the top four institutional figures in Italy,  including Berlusconi, criminal immunity for the time they are  in office. Passage of at least one of these measures is  possible by the end of July. Berlusconi is also consulting  with coalition partners on a bill to restrict the use of  telephone intercepts.  4. (C/NF) Council of Ministers Undersecretary Paolo Bonaiuti  told Poloff July 1 that discussion of these provisions has  diverted the public's attention from legislative progress on  Berlusconi's domestic agenda. However, a poll released July  2 indicates that 51 percent of Italians would vote for  Berlusconi if elections were held now, versus 47 percent who  actually voted for him in April. 45 percent support (an  additional 10 percent are indifferent) the temporary freeze  of less important criminal cases, including those pending  against Berlusconi.  CHANGE CAUSED BY A NEWLY FULL LEGAL CASELOAD  --------------------------------------------  5. (S/NF) The press reports there are at least three criminal  cases pending against the PM. The reason for the timing of  Berlusconi's moves became clear when prosecutors announced  that Berlusconi could be required to testify eight times in  July. Simultaneously, audio files of wiretappings of  Berlusconi and other politicians were leaked to the press and  published on the internet. Council of Ministers  Undersecretary Gianni Letta told the Ambassador July 2 that  additional embarrassing wiretappings could be released in the  next few weeks.  6. (C/NF) Though the timing for the hearings was a surprise,  the cases against Berlusconi are not new. In one case  potentially coming to a head in the next few weeks,  Berlusconi is accused of offering British corporate lawyer  David Mills a $600,000 bribe to hide potentially  ROME 00000840 002.2 OF 002  incriminating evidence. In another trial, Berlusconi is  accused of fraud related to film rights for his private TV  network, Mediaset. In the case currently receiving the most  press due to leaked telephone intercepts, Berlusconi is  accused of trading political favors with former state  television (RAI) director Agostino Sacca, though much of the  evidence surrounds Berlusconi's recommendations that certain  showgirls should get greater airtime. (NOTE: Berlusconi would  not be required to resign in the event of a criminal  conviction, though he would likely come under considerable  political pressure to do so. Convictions are not considered  definitive until they are upheld on two appeals. In Italy,  that can take several years. END NOTE.)  ITALY'S JUDICIARY: FOR MANY, A BROKEN SYSTEM  --------------------------------------------  7. (C/NF) Transcripts of telephone intercepts related to  criminal investigations are frequently leaked to the press,  resulting in significant embarrassment to those involved and  calls for reform of Italy's fiercely independent judiciary  and of the practice of wiretapping. Rarely, if ever, is the  source inside the judiciary who leaked the transcript  discovered. Though Italy's judiciary is traditionally  considered left-leaning, former PM and FM Massimo D'Alema  told the Ambassador last year that the judiciary is the  greatest threat to the Italian state. Despite fifteen years  of discussions on the need for comprehensive judicial reform,  no significant progress has been made. Italians, by and  large, consider their judicial system broken, perhaps beyond  repair, and have very little confidence that the system  actually delivers justice.  WITH A LONG RECORD OF PURSUING BERLUSCONI  -----------------------------------------  8. (C/NF) Berlusconi's legal troubles date back to before his  entry into politics, though FM Frattini recently noted that  Berlusconi has never been convicted definitively for  anything. Berlusconi frequently complains that prosecutors  time the announcement of investigations to damage him  politically: "justice by the clock." For example, Milan  judges announced they were investigating Berlusconi for  accounting fraud on April 26, 2005, the day Berlusconi was  requesting a parliamentary vote of confidence. Only a month  earlier and days before local elections, investigators  announced they would charge Berlusconi with bribery involving  film rights for his media company. Though there are several  more examples, the most celebrated is the announcement  Berlusconi was being investigated for tax fraud on the eve of  the 2001 G8 Summit in Genoa.  COMMENT  -------  9. (C/NF) Berlusconi's legal woes have dogged his fifteen  years as a politician, though he has never received a  conclusive conviction. With even some opposition members  decrying the apparently political timing of the magistrates'  most recent investigations and supporting judicial reform, it  seems that politically motivated investigators may have gone  too far. More importantly, President Napolitano's implied  support for a bill conferring criminal immunity on, among  others, Berlusconi means Berlusconi's legal problems could  soon be laid to rest for the duration of his governing  mandate. Despite this and buoyant opinion polls, additional  revelations over the next month have some of his advisers  worried. In short, Berlusconi has run into headwinds, and it  is unclear if they have shifted back in his favor. In the  extreme, it is possible to imagine a scenario where  Berlusconi could lose considerable popularity and his ability  to implement reforms, or even his power to govern. END  COMMENT.  SPOGLI